A new report from Sg2 utilized patient-level data and local market trends to forecast patient volumes over the next decade. Home health is expected to see a 19% growth in home evaluation and management visits, a 13% growth in home hospice and a 10% growth in physical and occupational therapy at home.
While hospital inpatient volume is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels, it is only expected to grow 2% past that. Hospital inpatient days will increase at an 8% growth rate, however, and tertiary patient days at 17%, due to an expected increase in chronic conditions.
"While case mix varies by hospital, it is likely this combination of increased inpatient volume, patient complexity and length of stay may require healthcare organizations to rethink service line prioritization, service distribution and investment in care at-home initiatives," Maddie McDowell, MD, FAAP, senior principal and medical director of quality and strategy for Sg2, said in the news release for the report.