Home health care spending is expected to outpace other sectors through at least 2031, according to a federal estimate released June 14.
Overall spending for health care is expected to grow 5.1% in 2023, while home health spending is projected to jump 7.5%, according to CMS estimates published in Health Affairs.
Growth in home health spending is expected to climb on average 7.4% annually from 2024-2031. That’s compared to a 5.5% average annual increase in health care spending overall.
Spending on home health is expected to growth from an estimated $141.5 billion estimated in 2023 to $250.6 billion by 2031. Medicare alone will account for $47.7 billion of that growth as spending on Medicare home health nearly doubles in that time.
“Altogether, and consistent with its past trend, health spending for the next 10 years is expected to grow more rapidly, on average, than the overall economy,” says Sean Keehan, an economist in the Office of the Actuary at CMS, and the Health Affairs study’s first author.
According to the report, businesses, households, and other private revenues are expected to pay the same proportion of total health spending in 2031 as they did in 2021 (51%). Government spending is projected to account for the remaining 49% (also the same as 2021). Before the pandemic, in 2019, those shares were 54% and 46%, respectively.
Projected Home Health Expenditures
| Year |
Total |
Out-of-Pocket |
(Insurance Total) |
(Private) |
(Medicare) |
(Medicaid) |
(Other Insurance) |
Other Payers |
| 2023 |
141.5 |
15.9 |
121.7 |
20.1 |
50.8 |
49.6 |
1.3 |
3.9 |
| 2024 |
149.3 |
17.8 |
127.3 |
22.3 |
53.8 |
49.9 |
1.4 |
4.2 |
|
2025
|
160.5 |
19.5 |
136.4 |
24.3 |
58.2 |
52.3 |
1.6 |
4.6 |
| 2026 |
172.5 |
20.9 |
146.7 |
26.1 |
63.5 |
55.4 |
1.7 |
4.9 |
| 2027 |
186.9 |
22.5 |
159.1 |
28.1 |
70.5 |
58.6 |
1.8 |
5.3 |
| 2028 |
201.9 |
24.4 |
171.7 |
30.6 |
77.3 |
61.9 |
1.9 |
5.8 |
| 2029 |
217.2 |
26.3 |
184.7 |
32.9 |
84.1 |
65.6 |
2.1 |
6.2 |
| 2030 |
233.3 |
28.2 |
198.4 |
35.6 |
90.9 |
69.5 |
2.3 |
6.7 |
| 2031 |
250.6 |
30.2 |
213.1 |
38.5 |
98.5 |
73.7 |
2.5 |
7.2 |
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